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His plea agreement with prosecutors means the maximum sentence he faces is 10 years. review its Code of Conduct,Lululemon Canada,der’s political nous and common touch had secured his victory.It is worth noting that Stoiber’s defeat opened the way for Angela Merkel to stand for the Chancellorship five years later and the rest is history – history whose course may well have been changed by the coincidence of a natural disaster and an election Extreme weather as Americans have learnt over the past week is one of the few eventualities capable of up-ending the probabilities of a modern election The candidates may have spent a fortune on advertising commissioned the most insightful of pollsters and stumped the swing states until they are hoarse but when a late-season hurricane strikes the best-laid plans risk going to wasteVoyeursPart of the for us voyeurs watching from the safety of the other side of the Atlantic was the pictures of Manhattan that so resembled scenes from a disaster movie But it was the proximity of the presidential election just a week away that gave the whole the feel of a rip-roaring cross between Independence Day and The Day After Tomorrow Such juxtapositions do not happen often – indeed it was the first time anyone could remember that a natural disaster came so close to an election to the point where some even hazarded that the poll could be postponedWith the New York Stock Exchange now reopened clean-up operations well under way and the candidates back on the campaign trail the election timetable will clearly be kept But the political calculus has changed What is harder to gauge than it was a decade ago in Germany is exactly how and in whose favourThe obvious conclusion is that a natural disaster offers an opportunity for the incumbent to lose Not only this but any US politician cannot but have a detailed template in his mind of how not to do it George Bush himself recognised with hindsight that his late and remote response to Hurricane Katrina was “a huge mistake” Had New Orleans been devastated not in 2005 but a year earlier on the eve of the 2004 election the odds must be that the Republican would have been a one-term president and John Kerry might now be approaching the end of his second term Not for the first time Bush was luckySo far Obama has played the hand well that chance dealt him The first criticism from the Republican camp was that in suspending his campaign and returning to Washington when he did he was overreacting In the light of Katrina that hardly counts as a criticism The extent to which Obama was engaged and exercising his power as President brought compliments from the New York’s Mayor Michael Bloomberg and a Governor of the worst-afflicted state New Jersey – both RepublicansIt hardly matters – for this election – whether Christie was speaking with half an eye to the Republican nomination in four years’ time; his words were worth a good amount of expensive television advertising to the Obama camp And in his prompt visits to the Red Cross headquarters and then to the New Jersey coast Obama consistently struck the right note If the relief effort were to stall and parts of New York City are still without electricity on election day doubts might be voiced about the President’s effectiveness In the greater scheme of things though it would still be early days The timing has been good to? and it is Obama whose campaign feels more vigorous. 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